The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Friday that the southwest monsoon is set to make its onset over Kerala within the next 24 hours. This marks the official commencement of the 2025 monsoon season in India, signaling a crucial phase for the country’s agricultural cycle and water resources.
According to the IMD, conditions are now “favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala during the next 24 hours.” The arrival of the monsoon is slightly earlier than the forecast date of May 27, providing a hopeful start for farmers and stakeholders across southern India.
Heavy Rainfall Likely Across Kerala and Coastal Karnataka
The IMD has issued an alert predicting heavy to very heavy rainfall in various parts of Kerala and coastal Karnataka over the coming days. Districts such as Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha, and Ernakulam are likely to experience intense rainfall activity, accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms.
“Fishermen have been advised not to venture into the sea due to strong winds reaching speeds of 40–50 km/h, gusting to 60 km/h, along the Kerala coast,” the IMD said in a bulletin released Friday morning. The department has also urged state authorities to stay vigilant and prepare for potential flooding in low-lying areas.
Agricultural and Economic Significance of the Monsoon
The arrival of the southwest monsoon is a critical event for India, as nearly 50% of the country’s farmland relies on monsoon rains for cultivation. Kerala, often the first state to receive the monsoon, acts as a key indicator for the upcoming seasonal rainfall trends.
An early and strong onset often boosts sowing activities for crops like paddy, pulses, and cotton. Economists and agricultural experts are closely monitoring the rainfall distribution and intensity, as it will impact Kharif crop yields and overall rural demand in the coming months.
“An on-time and widespread monsoon is vital for food inflation control and economic stability, particularly in the post-pandemic recovery phase,” said Dr. Arun Mehta, a senior economist with the Centre for Policy Research.
IMD’s Forecast Accuracy and Technological Upgrades
In recent years, the IMD has significantly improved its forecasting accuracy using satellite data, oceanic monitoring systems, and dynamic models. The department had earlier indicated the possibility of a normal monsoon this year, raising hopes for stable agricultural output.
While the monsoon’s early arrival in Kerala is promising, weather experts caution that timely progression across the subcontinent is equally essential. “The key lies in how the monsoon advances into central and northern India over the next few weeks,” said Dr. Mehta.
Preparedness Measures in Full Swing
The Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) has activated district-level control rooms and is coordinating with local bodies to address any emergency. Evacuation plans and relief camps have been prepared in flood-prone areas to mitigate the impact of torrential rain.
Authorities are also inspecting the health of reservoirs and dams to ensure safety amid the expected surge in water inflow. “We are fully prepared to manage the monsoon. Public cooperation will be key,” said Dr. Sekhar Kuriakose, Member Secretary of KSDMA.
