What Went Down in the New Iran–US–Israel War
The rise in violence right now is the outcome of a tangled web of past problems and prepared enemies. Iran has been a big enemy of the US and Israel for a long time because it wants nuclear weapons, supports groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and has a plan for ballistic missiles. Israel thinks that Iran’s nuclear program could lead to its own destruction, which is why it started bombing suspected enrichment installations in the 2010s. The U.S. has made Israel’s defenses stronger with systems like Iron Dome and David’s Sling, and it has also imposed stiff punishments.
Mossad intelligence indicates that Israel’s deliberate execution of a high-ranking officer in the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria triggered this week’s escalation. Iran fired more than 200 drones and missiles against Israeli military bases in the Golan Heights in response. Most of them were halted, but some hit civilian areas, killing three people and wounding hundreds more. The U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf shot down many missiles, which shows that the U.S. was actively involved. President Elena Ramirez labeled the attacks “unprovoked aggression” and dispatched more F-35 squadrons to the area.
Experts suggest that this cycle is like what happened in the past, such the shadow war in 2024 that happened after Hamas attacked on October 7. “The Iran–US–Israel conflict has gone from secret operations to open skirmishes,” says Dr. Miriam Kessler, a specialist on the Middle East at the Brookings Institution. “Iran’s axis of resistance, which goes through Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq, makes it stronger and needs to be dealt with on many fronts.”
Big changes in how the military plans and fights
In the last 72 hours, there have never been so many active acts. In 2023, Iran’s hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles were first presented to the public. They broke through Israeli air defenses for the first time and targeted an airbase in the Negev Desert, destroying two F-15 jets. Israel responded with Operation Iron Fist, which involved firing 150 precision-guided missiles at IRGC sites between Tehran and Natanz, which is Iran’s major nuclear enrichment facility. Satellite pictures suggest that the centrifuge rooms were substantially damaged, which might set back Iran’s nuclear program by months.
The U.S. got more involved after the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group shot down three Iranian ships in the Red Sea. Officials from the Pentagon indicated that U.S. forces have prevented 85% of threats coming in, but they also warned that Iran’s “swarm tactics” could get through defenses.
To give you an idea of how huge it is:
Missile Interceptions: Israel shot down 98% of the more than 300 missiles, and the U.S. shot down 120.
Deaths: 15 Israeli soldiers died, and Iran claimed 28 IRGC soldiers died.
Damage to infrastructure: 40% of Natanz’s above-ground buildings were destroyed, and two Saudi Aramco pipelines were damaged in sympathy strikes.
The military ministry’s briefings give us these figures, which indicate how precise and high-stakes the struggle is. Israel’s choice to send more planes into Iranian airspace shows that its doctrine has changed and it is no longer just using proxy deterrence.
Worries about the oil market are growing due of supply issues.
The only thing that concerns global markets more than the Iran–US–Israel conflict is how it will affect oil shipments. There are more mines and speedboats in the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world’s oil flows. This makes it more risky. Just a few hours after the strikes, the price of Brent crude rose 15% to $105 per barrel. This is the most expensive thing since the war in Ukraine in 2022. Analysts think the price will rise to $120 if more stores close.
Some of the most critical issues are:
Houthi attacks on Saudi facilities stopped 5 million barrels per day (bpd) from Ras Tanura.
Iran has said that it might mine the Gulf, which could stop 10 million barrels a day from Qatar and the UAE.
The U.S. is putting more restrictions on Iran’s 2.5 million barrels per day supplies, which are being transported through secret fleets.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released 60 million barrels from strategic reserves, but they predict there will be shortages for a long time. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s Executive Director, said, “There is no need to worry about the oil market.” “A full blockade of Hormuz could raise prices to $150, which would cause a global recession.”
Europe is really weak right now because it is cutting back on supplies from Russia. Germany’s economy, which relies on Gulf LNG, was anticipated to decrease by 0.8% in the first quarter. India’s refineries in Asia are exploring for other possibilities, and imports that are priced in rupees are up 25%. Shale companies in the U.S. are increasing production, but delays are causing short-term problems for customers. Gas prices in California went over $6 a gallon.
Effects on global security and stress on alliances
The conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has consequences on world security that transcend beyond the economic. Members of NATO are debating whether or not to get involved. The UK and France send frigates to the Gulf, and Turkey calls Israel’s attacks “Zionist aggression.” Iran has the backing of Russia and China in diplomatic matters. For instance, Moscow sells Iran S-400 systems, while Beijing buys oil at a lower price.
The UN Security Council had an emergency meeting, but things are moving slowly since some are threatening to veto decisions. Antonio Guterres, the UN Secretary-General, said, “This could turn a proxy war into a direct great-power confrontation.”
There are other impacts as well:
Cyber Front: Iranian hackers linked to APT33 screwed up Israel’s power grid, which caused blackouts in Tel Aviv.
The IAEA says Iran is enriching uranium to 90%, which is the level needed to make bombs. The U.S. has now threatened to attack first because of this.
Refugee flows: 50,000 individuals have left the border between Syria and Lebanon, which is putting a strain on the resources of Jordan and the EU.
Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel declared there would be a “new era of deterrence” and promised to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. In the U.S., hawks want to overthrow the government, but diplomats want to calm things down by having Oman mediate talks.
Voices from the Frontlines: What it Costs People and How to Do It
The price keeps going higher on the ground. People in Tehran are getting ready for further strikes since there isn’t enough fuel. “We fear endless war,” says Ali Rezaei, a resident, which is what the official media has been stating. 10,000 people have left northern Israel to get away from Hezbollah rockets.
Military experts talk about what asymmetric warfare is and how it works. Iran’s drone swarms are harsh on finances since they cost $2,000 each, whereas interceptors cost $2 million each. But Israel’s AI-powered targeting is still better.
How to settle things down or launch a greater war?
There are still only a few ways to get out of the situation diplomatically. Qatar is hosting indirect talks and is proposed a ceasefire that would happen when the Houthis leave. The U.S. will withdraw some sanctions if Iran agrees to nuclear limits, but Iran wants Israel to abandon its bases in Syria.
There are different ways the future could go:
If things go well, there will be a truce in a few weeks and oil prices will stay at $90.
Prices will be $110 for the first six months of the war.
The worst thing that might happen is that Hormuz shuts down, oil prices go up to $200, and there is a conflict all across the world.
The Iran–US–Israel crisis has gotten worse, and fast action from many countries is needed to avoid calamity.
The conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel is becoming worse, and oil markets and world security are on edge.
