Vote‑counting for the 2025 Bihar Assembly elections is underway, and early trends suggest a commanding lead for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The NDA has already crossed the halfway mark of 122 seats in the 243‑member legislature, marking a decisive shift in the state’s political landscape. Meanwhile, the opposition Mahagathbandhan—led by the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) with Tejashwi Yadav as its face—appears to be lagging, with the Indian National Congress emerging as a particularly weak link in its campaign.
The NDA’s lead is grounded in multiple factors. Early data show the alliance leading in 67 seats as of mid‑morning, while the Mahagathbandhan was ahead in only 25, signaling a strong start for the ruling bloc. By around 11 a.m., the NDA’s tally of leads had climbed to over 190 seats, a dramatic improvement from expectations. Analysts point to several strategic advantages for the NDA: the consolidation of the EBC (Extremely Backward Classes) and women’s voter bases, as well as solid performance in constituencies with large Muslim populations.
In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan alliance has struggled to convert campaign rhetoric into leads. Although Tejashwi Yadav is reported to be leading in his Raghopur constituency, his alliance overall appears to be falling behind the NDA’s momentum. Congress, in particular, is seen as a weak link within the opposition front, with only a handful of leads and limited traction on the ground. Moreover, the emergence of the Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) led by poll strategist‑turned‑politician Prashant Kishor failed to make the expected impact, further weakening the opposition space.
The NDA’s dominance so far also reflects regional patterns. The Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) appears to have gained the most from the alliance’s strategy, particularly in seats previously considered strongholds of opposition parties. Meanwhile, the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) held its ground strongly, complementing its partner’s gains and boosting the alliance’s chances of forming a stable government. Analysts suggest that the NDA’s message of continuity in governance, combined with targeted caste‑mobilisation efforts and women’s outreach, played a key role.
As vote‑counting proceeds in Bihar, the early trend clearly favors the NDA crossing the crucial threshold for forming government, possibly with a strong mandate. This outcome, if sustained, will reinforce the alliance’s dominance in the state and re‑shape opposition strategy going into future polls. For the Mahagathbandhan, the current lag raises questions about its coalition coherence and campaign messaging. In the coming hours, attention will pivot to whether the early leads translate into final seats and whether any regional shifts emerge that could alter the narrative.
