Kyiv – Ukraine has announced renewed efforts to revive large-scale prisoner exchanges with Russia, aiming for the release of up to 1,200 Ukrainian captives. The initiative, mediated by Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), seeks to reactivate protocols established in Istanbul in 2022.
Strategic Diplomatic Move
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is “counting on the resumption of POW exchanges,” highlighting ongoing negotiations to make it happen. Rustem Umerov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defence Council, confirmed that recent talks mediated by Turkey and the UAE had reached an agreement to reactivate the Istanbul prisoner-exchange protocol.
The Istanbul agreements, initially brokered in 2022, set out rules for large-scale and coordinated swaps of prisoners of war between the two countries.
Key Details of the Proposed Exchange
| Aspect | Current Status / Proposal |
|---|---|
| Target Number of Prisoners | Approximately 1,200 Ukrainians to be exchanged |
| Mediators | Turkey and United Arab Emirates (UAE) |
| Protocol Basis | Reactivation of the 2022 Istanbul agreements for large-scale swaps |
| Next Steps | Technical consultations to formalize procedural and organizational framework |
| Timeline | Ukraine hopes to complete arrangements in time for New Year and Christmas holidays |
Context and Challenges
This development follows a historic prisoner exchange in June 2025, when Ukraine and Russia agreed in Istanbul to swap all seriously wounded and ill prisoners, as well as young soldiers aged 18–25. The agreement also included the return of the remains of up to 6,000 fallen soldiers.
Despite these breakthroughs, broader peace talks remain stalled. Ceasefire negotiations have not yielded a definitive truce, with both sides maintaining divergent political demands.
Geopolitical Implications
- Humanitarian Impact: Resuming prisoner swaps could provide a rare diplomatic victory, bringing home hundreds of Ukrainians and offering hope to families.
- Mediation Leverage: Turkey and the UAE’s active role underscores their growing influence in high-stakes diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv.
- Broader Peace Process: While framed as a humanitarian effort, the success or failure of the swap could signal the prospects for future ceasefire negotiations.
- Domestic Resonance: Completing the swap before winter holidays carries emotional and political significance, potentially boosting national morale.
Risks and Uncertainties
- Moscow’s Response: Russia has not yet publicly committed to the new swap plan.
- Logistical Challenges: Organizing a swap of this scale requires complex procedural, security, and verification measures.
- Ongoing Hostilities: Military escalation could delay or derail sensitive negotiations.
- Trust Deficit: Longstanding mistrust between Kyiv and Moscow could undermine the reactivation of the Istanbul protocol.
Ukraine’s renewed push for a 1,200-person prisoner exchange with Russia represents a significant diplomatic effort, anchored by Turkey- and UAE-mediated talks. If successful, the swap would provide both a humanitarian respite and a potential indicator of future diplomatic engagement, even as the broader conflict continues.
